Gasner Bros. is on vacation for Thanksgiving. We'll be back in December.
Markets
Barack Obama has announced a new economic recovery advisory board to be chaired by Paul Volcker. CDS on US government bonds were trading as high as 56bp this morning, putting them in line with weaker industrial sovereigns like Italy and the strongest corporates.
The Bank of China sharply cut reserve requirements for banks and benchmark interest rates after the OECD cut its 2009 GDP growth forecast from 9.5% to 8%
Nearly 30 million Americans are currently using food stamps, approaching the all-time high set after Hurricane Katrina. The four-week moving average of weekly unemployment claims is at a 25 year high.
The NYT has another must-read infograph breaking down the bailout so far: where it's gone, how it's gone, and what's been spent. Alphaville says explicitly guaranteed bank paper, such as that issued by Goldman with a Federal backstop yesterday, may act as a drug on the market for agency debt. Porsche, VW, and Audi have announced production cuts.
The Council for Foreign Relations has a brief biography of Timothy Geithner, Obama's likely nominee for Treasury secretary, along with selected readings from his major work and speeches.
World
It is not yet clear whether coordinated bombings and gunman attacks at Mumbai hotels and the city's Victoria Station which killed at least 80 tonight are the work of terrorists or of criminal gangs.
Morgan Tsvangirai has publicly rejected the mediation of former South Africa President Thabo Mbeki, after months of partiality and support for the Zanu-PF and a recent letter that infuriated the MDC. The cholera outbreak is the "worst crisis" ever to hit Zimbabwe, according to Mr. Tsvangirai, and it underscores the need for a functioning government to return. The US Treasury has frozen the assets of four major supporters of Mr. Mugabe. Botswana is openly calling for Mugabe's ouster, as President Ian Khama takes a bigger role as a regional leader in the crisis. Separately, a Harvard study proposes that as many as 365,000 deaths were caused by Thabo Mbeki's refusal to acknowledge HIV/AIDS while president of South Africa.
Extra police have been put on duty guarding New York City's transit systems after an unsubstantiated source indicated that Al Qaeda associates had discussed an attack in the holiday season as recently as September. Several officials said that the plans never reached beyond the "aspirational" stage, but that the extra vigilance was necessary regardless.
The Thai army is calling for new elections, disappointing anti-government, royalist protestors hoping for a coup.
The SOFA is widely expected to pass after the Sunni parties in Iraq extracted a major concession; a national referendum on the continued presence of US forces will be held next year, potentially forcing the US out a year earlier than the 2011 deadline in the SOFA.
Martine Aubry's victory in elections for the leadership of the French Socialist Party was confirmed after a recount in which she won by just over 100 votes. Segolene Royal's supporters are crying foul, but the Party leadership has voted to accept Mme. Aubry's victory.
The Palestinian wire service is reporting Libya has sent a ship carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza, in an attempt to break the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip.
Science
President Bush is asking mayors and other state officials from around the country to send written formal letters to the EPA detailing how much they do not want carbon emissions to be regulated. The letter warned that any regulation would "effectively stop" all major infrastructure and energy projects. Hopefully, this is one last last hurrah from our famed "world's biggest polluter." Texas Governor Rick Perry joined the chorus vociferously.
BBC News has a much easier to read synopsis of a paper in Monday's edition of PNAS, which discusses ocean acidification and the possibility that acidification as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations may be increasing far faster than previously expected.
Slate profiles the car horn, and it reveals that, contrary to expectations, car horns increase the rate of dangerous collisions, as drivers become more complacent and less alert when a horn is available.
Andrew Revkin at DotEarth discusses yesterday's shameful recommendations on the quota for the bluefin tuna catch in the Atlantic.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Readings: Bagehot
"Political economists say that capital sets towards the most profitable trades, and that it rapidly leaves the less profitable and non-paying trades. But in ordinary countries this is a slow process, and some persons who want to have ocular demonstration of abstract truths have been inclined to doubt it because they could not see it. In England, however, the process would be visible enough if you could only see the books of the bill brokers and the bankers. Their bill cases as a rule are full of the bills drawn in the most profitable trades, and caeteris paribus and in comparison empty of those drawn in the less profitable. If the iron trade ceases to be as profitable as usual, less iron is sold; the fewer the sales the fewer the bills; and in consequence the number of iron bills in Lombard Street is diminished. On the other hand, if in consequence of a bad harvest the corn trade becomes on a sudden profitable, immediately 'corn bills' are created in great numbers, and if good are discounted in Lombard Street. Thus English capital runs as surely and instantly where it is most wanted, and where there is most to be made of it, as water runs to find its level.
"This efficient and instantly-ready organisation gives us an enormous advantage in competition with less advanced countries--less advanced, that is, in this particular respect of credit. In a new trade English capital is instantly at the disposal of persons capable of understanding the new opportunities and of making good use of them. In countries where there is little money to lend, and where that little is lent tardily and reluctantly, enterprising traders are long kept back, because they cannot at once borrow the capital, without which skill and knowledge are useless...
"But in exact proportion to the power of this system is its delicacy I should hardly say too much if I said its danger. Only our familiarity blinds us to the marvellous nature of the system. There never was so much borrowed money collected in the world as is now collected in London. Of the many millions in Lombard Street, infinitely the greater proportion is held by bankers or others on short notice or on demand; that is to say, the owners could ask for it all any day they please: in a panic some of them do ask for some of it. If any large fraction of that money really was demanded, our banking system and our industrial system too would be in great danger."
Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street (1873)
"This efficient and instantly-ready organisation gives us an enormous advantage in competition with less advanced countries--less advanced, that is, in this particular respect of credit. In a new trade English capital is instantly at the disposal of persons capable of understanding the new opportunities and of making good use of them. In countries where there is little money to lend, and where that little is lent tardily and reluctantly, enterprising traders are long kept back, because they cannot at once borrow the capital, without which skill and knowledge are useless...
"But in exact proportion to the power of this system is its delicacy I should hardly say too much if I said its danger. Only our familiarity blinds us to the marvellous nature of the system. There never was so much borrowed money collected in the world as is now collected in London. Of the many millions in Lombard Street, infinitely the greater proportion is held by bankers or others on short notice or on demand; that is to say, the owners could ask for it all any day they please: in a panic some of them do ask for some of it. If any large fraction of that money really was demanded, our banking system and our industrial system too would be in great danger."
Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street (1873)
Charts: Income Inequality (3)
Households with income over $250,000 (2006), as a percentage of all households
Total income of households with income over $250,000 (2006), as a percentage of all household income
Total income of households with income over $250,000 (2006), as a percentage of all household income
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Roundup: November 25
Markets
With the total value of the federal government's bailout commitments now well over 50% of GDP, this morning the Federal Reserve and Treasury announced the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which will lend up to $200bn against asset-backed securities backed by recently originated student, auto, and credit card loans, and loans guaranteed by the SBA. The Treasury will backstop the Fed's lending under the program up to $20bn -- as financial institutions delever, the government levers up (though only 10x) to maintain the flow of cheap credit. The Fed will also directly purchase GSE debt (up to $100bn) and will buy up to $500bn of GSE-backed MBS... through "a series of competitive auctions... by asset managers selected via a competitive process." (Isn't this exactly what Paulson told us last week was too impracticable to be a good use of TARP funds?) At this point, moral outrage is utterly exhausted: it's time to pause in sheer awe at the immense, irreversible, jury-rigged apparatus that our unelected guardians have constructed to keep a "finger in the dike." If this is the finger, what does the flood look like? Markets were initially euphoric on the announcement, but this $800bn injection didn't even last us the day. Obama's press conference didn't provide much reassurance -- although we did get to see the incredible spectacle of an American president badmouthing subsidies for millionaire farmers.
The largest pending buyout deal in the world, the merger of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, has been scuttled. Cisco is cutting capacity by shutting operations down in North America for four days.
Moscow widened the trading band on the ruble by 30 kopeks on each end, allowing the ruble to depreciate further and reducing stress on her foreign reserves. Russia's deposit insurance agency has been given $7.2bn by the state to help rescue banks.
American equity investors believe they have it bad, but the liquidity crunch is much worse in emerging stock markets.
US Q3 GDP fell 0.5% (revised), below expectations, with consumption down 3.7% and inventories rising (0.9%). The Federal Reserve has released maps of credit card and mortgage delinquencies for Q2 -- mortgage delinquency rates increased in 74% of US counties in Q2, as delinquencies appear no longer to be heavily localized in a few hard-hit regions. The Case-Shiller home price indices were off sharply in September. Price-to-income and price-to-rent are declining but not yet in line with historical trends.
The FDIC's "troubled banks" list expanded by 46% in Q3.
World
Salim Hamdan will be released from the prison at Guantanamo Bay and returned to his home country of Yemen seven years after he was captured. His capture brought about the landmark supreme court case carrying his name; though initially accused of having helped to plan operations with Osama Bin Laden, everyone seems now to agree that he was, in fact, just Bin Laden's driver.
Clear pictures of the "mass incident" in Longnan, Gansu, show police beating rioters. Shanghai Scrap says that the limited armament used by the police reveals a policy of restraint -- and the primitive equipment available to the Chinese security forces.
Amnesty International has an excellent briefing on the situation in North Kivu in the DRC, well worth reading for anyone looking for a primer on the major players and recent history of the situation there.
Some prisons in Zimbabwe have begun releasing inmates rather than forcing them to starve. With dealing in foreign exchange illegal -- and even minimum wage earners demanding they be paid in forex, as the economy completely switches to rand and USD -- prices are now being quoted in "fuel coupons," with 1L of fuel standing in for 1 USD.
The defense in the Anna Politkovskaya murder trial is claiming that the murder was ordered by a Russian politician.
Time's China Blog rounds up last week's meetings of Tibetan exiles in Dharamsala.
North Korea is cutting its remaining commercial ties with South Korea ahead of six-party talks on its nuclear weapons programme in China on December 8.
Science
The World Meteorological Organization has announced that concentrations of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane reached all-time highs in 2007 in its Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
The Oil Drum continues its analysis of the 2008 IEA WEO -- it takes a brief look at the picture of coal supply and demand for the next thirty years.
The NYT has a superb interactive graphic comparing the fare price for NYC transit to historical norms and other transit systems across the country.
The corrupt process for determining the annual bluefin tuna catch quota has resulted in a quota vastly higher than scientists recommend, heightening risk that the species will become endangered and leading to calls for a boycott.
London Mayor Boris Johnson wants to implement a municipal bike-share scheme like Paris's Velib.
With the total value of the federal government's bailout commitments now well over 50% of GDP, this morning the Federal Reserve and Treasury announced the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which will lend up to $200bn against asset-backed securities backed by recently originated student, auto, and credit card loans, and loans guaranteed by the SBA. The Treasury will backstop the Fed's lending under the program up to $20bn -- as financial institutions delever, the government levers up (though only 10x) to maintain the flow of cheap credit. The Fed will also directly purchase GSE debt (up to $100bn) and will buy up to $500bn of GSE-backed MBS... through "a series of competitive auctions... by asset managers selected via a competitive process." (Isn't this exactly what Paulson told us last week was too impracticable to be a good use of TARP funds?) At this point, moral outrage is utterly exhausted: it's time to pause in sheer awe at the immense, irreversible, jury-rigged apparatus that our unelected guardians have constructed to keep a "finger in the dike." If this is the finger, what does the flood look like? Markets were initially euphoric on the announcement, but this $800bn injection didn't even last us the day. Obama's press conference didn't provide much reassurance -- although we did get to see the incredible spectacle of an American president badmouthing subsidies for millionaire farmers.
The largest pending buyout deal in the world, the merger of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, has been scuttled. Cisco is cutting capacity by shutting operations down in North America for four days.
Moscow widened the trading band on the ruble by 30 kopeks on each end, allowing the ruble to depreciate further and reducing stress on her foreign reserves. Russia's deposit insurance agency has been given $7.2bn by the state to help rescue banks.
American equity investors believe they have it bad, but the liquidity crunch is much worse in emerging stock markets.
US Q3 GDP fell 0.5% (revised), below expectations, with consumption down 3.7% and inventories rising (0.9%). The Federal Reserve has released maps of credit card and mortgage delinquencies for Q2 -- mortgage delinquency rates increased in 74% of US counties in Q2, as delinquencies appear no longer to be heavily localized in a few hard-hit regions. The Case-Shiller home price indices were off sharply in September. Price-to-income and price-to-rent are declining but not yet in line with historical trends.
The FDIC's "troubled banks" list expanded by 46% in Q3.
World
Salim Hamdan will be released from the prison at Guantanamo Bay and returned to his home country of Yemen seven years after he was captured. His capture brought about the landmark supreme court case carrying his name; though initially accused of having helped to plan operations with Osama Bin Laden, everyone seems now to agree that he was, in fact, just Bin Laden's driver.
Clear pictures of the "mass incident" in Longnan, Gansu, show police beating rioters. Shanghai Scrap says that the limited armament used by the police reveals a policy of restraint -- and the primitive equipment available to the Chinese security forces.
Amnesty International has an excellent briefing on the situation in North Kivu in the DRC, well worth reading for anyone looking for a primer on the major players and recent history of the situation there.
Some prisons in Zimbabwe have begun releasing inmates rather than forcing them to starve. With dealing in foreign exchange illegal -- and even minimum wage earners demanding they be paid in forex, as the economy completely switches to rand and USD -- prices are now being quoted in "fuel coupons," with 1L of fuel standing in for 1 USD.
The defense in the Anna Politkovskaya murder trial is claiming that the murder was ordered by a Russian politician.
Time's China Blog rounds up last week's meetings of Tibetan exiles in Dharamsala.
North Korea is cutting its remaining commercial ties with South Korea ahead of six-party talks on its nuclear weapons programme in China on December 8.
Science
The World Meteorological Organization has announced that concentrations of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane reached all-time highs in 2007 in its Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
The Oil Drum continues its analysis of the 2008 IEA WEO -- it takes a brief look at the picture of coal supply and demand for the next thirty years.
The NYT has a superb interactive graphic comparing the fare price for NYC transit to historical norms and other transit systems across the country.
The corrupt process for determining the annual bluefin tuna catch quota has resulted in a quota vastly higher than scientists recommend, heightening risk that the species will become endangered and leading to calls for a boycott.
London Mayor Boris Johnson wants to implement a municipal bike-share scheme like Paris's Velib.
Readings: Hobson
"To support Imperialism by direct taxation of incomes or property would be impossible. Where any real forms of popular control existed, militarism and wars would be impossible if every citizen was made to realise their cost by payments of hard cash. Imperialism, therefore, makes everywhere for indirect taxation; not chiefly on grounds of convenience, but for purposes of concealment. Or perhaps it would be more just to say that Imperialism takes advantage of the cowardly and foolish preference which the average man everywhere exhibits for being tricked out of his contribution to the public funds, using this common folly for its own purposes. It is seldom possible for any Government, even in the stress of some grave emergency, to impose an income-tax; even a property-tax is commonly evaded in all cases of personal property, and is always unpopular. The case of England is an exception which really proves the rule."
John A. Hobson, Imperialism (1902)
John A. Hobson, Imperialism (1902)
Charts: Income Inequality (2)
Household income limit (upper) by percentile, as a multiple of the upper income limit of the 20th percentile, 1967-2007 (2007 dollars).
Monday, November 24, 2008
Roundup: November 24
Markets
The New Yorker profiles Ben Bernanke -- today's must-read. Useful for its background and its personal touch, it holds far too many punches (particularly in the context of the Citigroup bailout announced today; see below), but would be a masterwork just for this little fact it has brought to light: As recently as Labor Day, Bernanke thought his "finger-in-the-dike" policy was working. The lack of planning in evidence in the various bailout plans throughout the past three months seems to have been the direct result of inadequate contingency planning; no one even considered what potential options would be for the Fed and Treasury in a crisis situation, even after the fall of Bear Stearns.
Here are the terms of the Citigroup bailout, and the FDIC's press release. The U.S. Government will inject $20bn over and beyond the $25bn in TARP capital by purchasing preferred shares with an 8% dividend worth 7.8% of the company and will guarantee most losses on $306bn (the Fed's total potential exposure to the debt is $249bn) of its portfolio. The common stock dividend will be limited to $0.01 for three years, and the U.S. government will retain veto rights for any compensation plans to executives. Citigroup CDS fell by half in today's trading. Last week Hank Paulson called the situation in the financial markets "stabilized."
DealBook explains why this "government by deal" only benefits failed banks. Even if moral hazard remains a slogan with no effect, the government's actions today were more of the same: ad hoc, excessively favorable to the guilty party, and carried out with reckless abandon and craven if not zero oversight. Economist's View has the roundup of other criticism from around the world. Some highlights: Paul Krugman calls it "an outrage," Robert Reich asks "What, and ruin a perfect record?" of people who expected anything else from the Citi bailout, James Kwak calls it "Weak, Arbitrary, Incomprehensible." Reich's post from friday on why Citi will be bailed out and not GM is worth a look, as well. A fitting counterpoint to the weak mea culpa from Bernanke in the New Yorker article: Neither he nor Paulson have learnt their lesson.
President-elect Obama reportedly wants a new stimulus plan of as much as $500bn, around three times the amount he proposed while campaigning. Bloomberg estimates the potential cost of pledges already made by the U.S. at a staggering $7.76trn, or one half of U.S. GDP. CDS on U.S. Treasuries, perhaps a silly construction given the idea of an orderly payout in a situation in which the U.S. defaulted on sovereign debt, widened to between 45 and 50 basis points, an unprecedented number for the country.
President-elect Barack Obama announced the key members of his economic team today. Timothy Geithner wil take over at the Treasury, Larry Summers will be the head of the National Economic Council, and Christina Romer as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Prices of Existing Home Sales fell by the most on record in October, as the median fell 11.3% YoY. Barry Ritholtz explains why this is a good sign.
New York State Comptroller Eric DiNapoli estimates that the state will lose 225,000 financial jobs and over $6bn in annual revenue because of the financial crisis. Real estate prices in Greenwich, Conn. are falling fast.
The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger is facing widening deal spreads as some investors argue that BofA is paying too high a price for Merrill under the circumstances.
The NYT has an interactive graphic showing where the bailout money from TARP has gone and where the next batch may go.
World
Kofi Annan and Jimmy Carter were refused visas to visit Zimbabwe; they are using this as an opportunity to call for intervention and reform in the country. The "Elders" will meet Botswana President Ian Khama, an outspoken critic of Mugabe and the SADC, to discuss the crisis. The MDC is refusing to agree to Mugabe's unilateralism of last week, and the party is insisting that all issues relevant to a unity government, including the allocation of the Ministry of Home Affairs, be on the table when they meet with Zanu-PF this week. Police have barred two MDC rallies from occuring, ostensibly because of the cholera epidemic.
The much-anticipated Venezuelan provincial elections had mixed results; Chavez protected and retained most of his power base, but the opposition won three of the most populous regions. The elections went smoothly and there were no signs of irregularities; Chavez hailed it as a sign of the health of democracy in Venezuela.
Gazprom may file suit over Ukrainian unpaid gas debts; it has threatened also to shut off Ukrainian gas exports, unless a new contract is negotiated and signed posthaste. Gazprom offered to more than double the price of gas paid by Ukraine in its last offer. Russia has denied that it organized the attack on the motorcade of the Presidents of Georgia and Poland; Saakashvilli has claimed that no one can doubt who started the war in South Ossetia after this event.
Donald Rumsfeld's Op-Ed from Saturday's NYT is priceless; rarely are duplicity and mendacity so well documented. Far from being responsible for the historic mismanagement and underestimation of the first years of the Iraq war, we see that it was Rumsfeld's genius that created the preconditions for a successful surge. We think he is absolutely right.
Segolene Royal, the last Socialist candidate for President, was ousted from party leadership by Martine Aubry, mayor of Lille and the driving force behind the 35 hour workweek. The disorder in the Socialist Party recalls the Democrats of 2004, as the party
SWJ Blog reposts a recent interview with retired Colonel Peter R. Mansoor, former executive officer to General Petraeus and a founding director of COIN, a fascinating read for those interested in counterinsurgency. In the same Saturday Op-Ed as Rumsfeld (above) Mansoor wrote on how the U.S. might withdraw from Iraq without leaving a disaster. Ahmad Chalabi says "Thanks, but you can go now." The Marines may send as many as 15,000 more troops to Afghanistan.
A new obstacle has presented itself to the passage of the SOFA in Iraq, necessary for U.S. troops to remain past the New Year: Iraqi lawmakers want her oil wealth shielded from lawsuits and claims against Saddam Hussein's regime.
Science
The latest edition of Greenpeace's Guide to Greener Electronics has been published with no real surprises.
Climatic Change publishes a paper estimating the potential carbon-offsets achievable by increasing the albedo of urban surfaces like roofs and pavement; it estimates potential savings of 44GT CO2/yr with a net albedo increase of 0.1 across the world's entire eligible urban area. A strong argument for white roofs in building codes.
New Zealand foresters are crying foul after the Emissions Trading Scheme was scuttled, eliminating a major source of potential revenue from the sale of carbon offsets.
The New Yorker profiles Ben Bernanke -- today's must-read. Useful for its background and its personal touch, it holds far too many punches (particularly in the context of the Citigroup bailout announced today; see below), but would be a masterwork just for this little fact it has brought to light: As recently as Labor Day, Bernanke thought his "finger-in-the-dike" policy was working. The lack of planning in evidence in the various bailout plans throughout the past three months seems to have been the direct result of inadequate contingency planning; no one even considered what potential options would be for the Fed and Treasury in a crisis situation, even after the fall of Bear Stearns.
Here are the terms of the Citigroup bailout, and the FDIC's press release. The U.S. Government will inject $20bn over and beyond the $25bn in TARP capital by purchasing preferred shares with an 8% dividend worth 7.8% of the company and will guarantee most losses on $306bn (the Fed's total potential exposure to the debt is $249bn) of its portfolio. The common stock dividend will be limited to $0.01 for three years, and the U.S. government will retain veto rights for any compensation plans to executives. Citigroup CDS fell by half in today's trading. Last week Hank Paulson called the situation in the financial markets "stabilized."
DealBook explains why this "government by deal" only benefits failed banks. Even if moral hazard remains a slogan with no effect, the government's actions today were more of the same: ad hoc, excessively favorable to the guilty party, and carried out with reckless abandon and craven if not zero oversight. Economist's View has the roundup of other criticism from around the world. Some highlights: Paul Krugman calls it "an outrage," Robert Reich asks "What, and ruin a perfect record?" of people who expected anything else from the Citi bailout, James Kwak calls it "Weak, Arbitrary, Incomprehensible." Reich's post from friday on why Citi will be bailed out and not GM is worth a look, as well. A fitting counterpoint to the weak mea culpa from Bernanke in the New Yorker article: Neither he nor Paulson have learnt their lesson.
President-elect Obama reportedly wants a new stimulus plan of as much as $500bn, around three times the amount he proposed while campaigning. Bloomberg estimates the potential cost of pledges already made by the U.S. at a staggering $7.76trn, or one half of U.S. GDP. CDS on U.S. Treasuries, perhaps a silly construction given the idea of an orderly payout in a situation in which the U.S. defaulted on sovereign debt, widened to between 45 and 50 basis points, an unprecedented number for the country.
President-elect Barack Obama announced the key members of his economic team today. Timothy Geithner wil take over at the Treasury, Larry Summers will be the head of the National Economic Council, and Christina Romer as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Prices of Existing Home Sales fell by the most on record in October, as the median fell 11.3% YoY. Barry Ritholtz explains why this is a good sign.
New York State Comptroller Eric DiNapoli estimates that the state will lose 225,000 financial jobs and over $6bn in annual revenue because of the financial crisis. Real estate prices in Greenwich, Conn. are falling fast.
The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger is facing widening deal spreads as some investors argue that BofA is paying too high a price for Merrill under the circumstances.
The NYT has an interactive graphic showing where the bailout money from TARP has gone and where the next batch may go.
World
Kofi Annan and Jimmy Carter were refused visas to visit Zimbabwe; they are using this as an opportunity to call for intervention and reform in the country. The "Elders" will meet Botswana President Ian Khama, an outspoken critic of Mugabe and the SADC, to discuss the crisis. The MDC is refusing to agree to Mugabe's unilateralism of last week, and the party is insisting that all issues relevant to a unity government, including the allocation of the Ministry of Home Affairs, be on the table when they meet with Zanu-PF this week. Police have barred two MDC rallies from occuring, ostensibly because of the cholera epidemic.
The much-anticipated Venezuelan provincial elections had mixed results; Chavez protected and retained most of his power base, but the opposition won three of the most populous regions. The elections went smoothly and there were no signs of irregularities; Chavez hailed it as a sign of the health of democracy in Venezuela.
Gazprom may file suit over Ukrainian unpaid gas debts; it has threatened also to shut off Ukrainian gas exports, unless a new contract is negotiated and signed posthaste. Gazprom offered to more than double the price of gas paid by Ukraine in its last offer. Russia has denied that it organized the attack on the motorcade of the Presidents of Georgia and Poland; Saakashvilli has claimed that no one can doubt who started the war in South Ossetia after this event.
Donald Rumsfeld's Op-Ed from Saturday's NYT is priceless; rarely are duplicity and mendacity so well documented. Far from being responsible for the historic mismanagement and underestimation of the first years of the Iraq war, we see that it was Rumsfeld's genius that created the preconditions for a successful surge. We think he is absolutely right.
Segolene Royal, the last Socialist candidate for President, was ousted from party leadership by Martine Aubry, mayor of Lille and the driving force behind the 35 hour workweek. The disorder in the Socialist Party recalls the Democrats of 2004, as the party
SWJ Blog reposts a recent interview with retired Colonel Peter R. Mansoor, former executive officer to General Petraeus and a founding director of COIN, a fascinating read for those interested in counterinsurgency. In the same Saturday Op-Ed as Rumsfeld (above) Mansoor wrote on how the U.S. might withdraw from Iraq without leaving a disaster. Ahmad Chalabi says "Thanks, but you can go now." The Marines may send as many as 15,000 more troops to Afghanistan.
A new obstacle has presented itself to the passage of the SOFA in Iraq, necessary for U.S. troops to remain past the New Year: Iraqi lawmakers want her oil wealth shielded from lawsuits and claims against Saddam Hussein's regime.
Science
The latest edition of Greenpeace's Guide to Greener Electronics has been published with no real surprises.
Climatic Change publishes a paper estimating the potential carbon-offsets achievable by increasing the albedo of urban surfaces like roofs and pavement; it estimates potential savings of 44GT CO2/yr with a net albedo increase of 0.1 across the world's entire eligible urban area. A strong argument for white roofs in building codes.
New Zealand foresters are crying foul after the Emissions Trading Scheme was scuttled, eliminating a major source of potential revenue from the sale of carbon offsets.
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